Coronel pointed out that despite South Africa’s institutional strength and favourable global conditions, increasing domestic political uncertainty and stalled reforms point to a challenging economic outlook.
Some sectors, including agriculture and mining, are certainly generating growth, but other key activities have stagnated or declined, as investment decisions are being postponed or abandoned.
Coronel stated “IMF staff anticipates that the subdued economic growth of 0.7 percent, projected by the authorities for 2017, is not likely to improve much in 2018. Growth would recover only gradually in the medium term, unless the pace of implementation of structural reforms accelerates quickly enough to prompt a clear recovery in business and consumer confidence. Against current structural constraints, the envisaged growth upturn would be insufficient to reverse the on-going decline in per-capita income and generate enough jobs to absorb the growing labour force. Downside risks to the outlook relate to worsening perceptions of weak governance, tightening global financial conditions and slowing trading partner growth.
“South Africa’s slow growth and inefficiencies in public enterprises have taken a toll on public finances by generating a substantial revenue shortfall and prompting unplanned expenditure, as described in the 2017 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement. Against this background, IMF staff welcomes the National Treasury’s candid acknowledgement of the challenges and its call to the Presidential Fiscal Committee to implement reforms to unlock the economy’s potential.
“Specifically, IMF staff urges the Presidential Fiscal Committee to approve, in a timely fashion, fiscal measures to avoid undue increases in the debt-to-GDP ratio, including by strengthening tax revenue compliance and cutting unproductive outlays. The economy will also benefit from expeditious action from the Presidential Fiscal Committee to signal the political will to tackle longstanding issues that have led to deteriorating market sentiment. Reforms to improve governance and procurement practices and remove any obstacles to investment are essential. Special emphasis should be placed on prompt implementation of sanctions against deviations from the Public Financial Management Act to increase deterrence. Early announcement and timely implementation of a strong adjustment and reform plan is now a priority to restore investor and consumer confidence. This would increase competition in key markets, reduce input costs for households and businesses, and in turn, lead to a virtuous cycle between economic growth, job creation, and inequality reduction,” concluded Coronel.